« The sky will fall on many people | Main | Third Bank of the United States? »

Presidential prediction markets

Posted by Chris Farrell on Monday, October 6, 2008

I'm listening to a discussion about the presidential election, and the commentators are dwelling on the polls..

Curious, I pulled up the Iowa electronic presidential futures market. The results took me by surprise. The polls show that Obama has taken a lead with all the economy's troubles. But the bettors in the futures market are giving Obama a 75% chance of winning in November.

Dublin-based Intrade has been consistently less positive on Obama's chances than Iowa's market, but even it now gives him a 68% chance of winning.

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)

Comment preview will appear below. If you are responding to another comment, your response will appear below the original comment when published. Your comment may not appear on the blog until several minutes after it was submitted.

Subscribe to RSS

Latest posts

Warren Buffett

Voted

Policy and a pint

Prediction markets, one last time

Stocks for the long run

Fleeing equity mutual funds

A sobering statistic

Nobel laureates and their money

Other post World War ll depressions

The election

Topics

Latest comments from recent posts

A sobering statistic (1)
Ray The Money Man wrote: Chris, I couldn't agree more. Maybe I am just old enough to ... [read]

Other post World War ll depressions (1)
hakiton wrote: In 1985 years - it is good year for traidings, ... [read]

The election (1)
Nigel Eccles wrote: It is in the news media's interest for it to be a close race... [read]

What caused the Great Depression? (1)
Greg Ransom wrote: De Long is lying about Hayek. Hayek never said "depressions... [read]

Third Bank of the United States? (2)
Gene wrote: Some have call a Third Bank of the United States a Marxist p... [read]

November 2008
S	M	T	W	T	F	S
						1
2	3	4	5	6	7	8
9	10	11	12	13	14	15
16	17	18	19	20	21	22
23	24	25	26	27	28	29
30

Appearances and Worthwhile Events

Policy and a Pint: Health Care Handcuffs

More From
Chris Farrell

Marketplace Money's Money Clip Video

How Alan Helped Ben (BusinessWeek.com)

Other Blogs

Andrew Tobias

Angry Bear

Becker-Posner Blog

Brad DeLong

Cafe Hayek

Calculated Risk

Econbrowser

Economics Unbound

Economists View

Financial Rounds

Finance Roundtable

Greg Mankiw's Blog

Hot Property

Marginal Revolution

New Economist

TaxProf Blog

The Big Picture

Vox Baby